Michael Markowski, the developer of algorithms that have forecasted the S&P 500’s significant crashes for over a decade, has updated his forecast for the S&P 500’s bottom. His new forecast is for the S&P 500 to bottom at 1090.90. At this bottom, which Mr. Markowski has forecasted to occur between the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024, the S&P will have declined by 77.36% from its January 4, 2022 all-time high of 4818.62.
For Markowski’s 2007 to 2022 media-verifiable crash forecasts, please see the table below.
Additionally, Markowski at a December 2021 Family Office Club event, accurately predicted that the peak and the end for the S&P 500’s secular bull market, which began in March 2009, would occur in January 2022. He also predicted that the first secular bear for the index since 2000-2009 would begin.
PLEASE NOTE: Due to secular bears being extremely dangerous Mr. Markowski established “Markowski on the Market”, which he hosts every Saturday morning at 11:00AM EST. The sessions, which are complementary, provide the ongoing research and knowledge to make good decisions throughout the secular bear.
The table below contains all of Markowsk’s forecasts for the bottoms and percentage declines from the January 2022 high for the S&P 500. He updates his forecast each month after the US inflation rate is published. The latest forecasted bottom of 1090.90 is the highest of all of Markowski’s S&P 500 bottoms and the percentage decline is the lowest of all of his forecasts for 2022.
The forecast was calculated from the last reported US inflation rate of 7.7% for October 2022. It equated to a real dividend yield (Div/Y) of −6.05% for the S&P 500. After the inflation rate for November of 2022 is published later in December the forecast will be updated.
PLEASE NOTE: Mr. Markowski’s article “Inflation to Shoulder Blame for 79.95% S&P 500 Decline” cited later herein, provides details about the Div/Y, which adjusts for inflation. The indicator has been very accurate for determining S&P 500’s major tops and bottoms since 1871.
Mr. Markowski is known for his precision forecasts. His March 6, 2020 report, “U.S. Stock Market to Decline by Another 22% by Easter”, provided the hard data and rationale for the U.S. and other major foreign stock indices (cited in the table below) to decline by a minimum of 34% from their February 2020 record highs. The article cited that as of February 28, 2020 the indices had already declined by 10.8% to 13.8%. Well before Easter Sunday, April 12, 2020, the indices had declined by 32.1% to 39.9% from their pre-Pandemic 2020 record highs.
Mr. Markowski is also forecasting that the S&P 500’s trek to its bottom along with the US Federal Reserve’s hiking of its discount rate much to fast will cause the U.S. to enter into its Third Great Depression in 2023. His research intense June 2022 articles and “Entrenched Inflation” presentation at a September 15, 2022 New York city event are available via this link are highly recommended:
1. “Inflation to Shoulder Blame for 79.95% S&P 500 Decline”, Michael Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel. This article reveals key points, as follows:
- High correlation between the S&P 500’s real (inflation adjusted) dividend yield status (positive or negative) and performance of the index over a century and a half (from 1871 to 2020)
- Whenever the real dividend yield was negative from 1871 to 2019, the S&P 500 underperformed and was crash-prone
- When the dividend yield was positive the S&P 500 had its best performances
PLEASE NOTE: View the highly recommended 16:38 minute video clip below, “Research Findings Supporting 79.95% S&P 500 Decline” Markowski (June 6, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
2. “S&P 500’s Bottoms Occur Only When Generational Investors Buy!”, Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel. This article reveals:
- Why generational investors ― the world’s oldest and largest, including family offices, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, etc. ― are highly disciplined to not buy stocks until the S&P 500 Div/Y goes from negative to positive. View related article entitled, “All Family Offices Need to ‘Come of Age’“, Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
3. “Federal Reserve’s Repeat of 1920−1931 Policy Mistakes Set Stage for Next U.S. Great Depression”, Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel. This article reveals:
- Fed’s 2020 policy mistake was similar to its 1920 policy mistake, which led to first U.S. Great Depression and 32% S&P 500 decline
- Fed’s 2021 policy mistake is similar to that of 1928−-1929 policy mistake, which led to 85% S&P 500 decline and second U.S. Great Depression.
- S&P 500 decline will mimic the Second Great Depression decline of 85%, rather than the 32% decline of the First Great Depression.
PLEASE NOTE: Please also view related 12:47 minute video clip below (Part 2 of 2), entitled, “Research Findings Supporting Third U.S. Great Depression to Begin”, Documented with Part 1 of 2, “Inflation’s Chaos to Cause 79.95% S&P 500 Decline and 3rd U.S. Great Depression”, Part 2 of 2, “Research Findings Supporting Third U.S. Great Depression to Begin” Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
Markowski’s forecasted 77.36% decline for the S&P 500 from its all-time high coincides with his December 2021 prediction that a new secular bear market would begin in January 2022. His prediction proved to be accurate. S&P has declined by more than 20% since reaching its all-time high of 4818.62 on 1/4/22.
The S&P 500 entering its first secular bear market since 2000-2009 is significant. Its because the minimum decline for the S&P 500 during a secular bear market has ranged from 47% to 85% since 1929, see table below. The fact that the S&P 500 is in a secular bear increases the probability that Markowski’s 77.36% decline for the index will be accurate.
PLEASE NOTE: Attend Michael Markowski’s “Markowski on the Market” every Saturday at 11:00AM EST. Mr. Markowski is holding the sessions free of charge. He is very concerned for a majority of all investors and especially investors who are 55 years and older. Everyone needs to understand the psychology and the nature of a secular bear since they have 9 to 13 years durations. See table above.
Michael Markowski, a 46-year financial markets veteran, is the Director of Strategies for AlphaTack, whose slogan is “growing assets against the wind”. He conducts empirical research of the past, which he then utilizes to develop algorithms to predict the future. His research of Enron’s Financial Statements after its infamous bankruptcy led to the development of a Cash Flow Statement algorithm. The algorithm was utilized to predict a “day of reckoning” for Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs in a September 2007, Equities Magazine article. Michael’s research of prior market crashes led to the development of the Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) algorithm. From 2018 to 2022, the BBT gained 177% vs. the S&P 500’s 50%. His predictions of all periods of heightened market volatility from 2008 to 2022 and that S&P 500 at March 23, 2020 had reached its bottom which was exact are media verifiable.