It’s very possible that the behavior of the share price for Berkshire Hathaway (Berkshire) during 2025 is predicting a U.S. recession. The share price of the diversified conglomerate, which was founded by Warren Buffet, predicted the 2008 debacle. The chart below depicts that Berkshire’s share price peaked in early 2008. Two months later the S&P reached an all-time high. By then, as depicted in the chart below, Berkshire shares had declined by 15.4%. In December of 2008 the National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER) announced that the “Great 2008 Recession” had begun in December 2007. At their March 2009 lows the shares of Berkshire and the S&P 500 had declined by more than 53%.
The diversion pattern for 2025 is eerily similar to 2008. The chart below depicts that the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high in late June 2025. The high was preceded by the Berkshire share price reaching a new all-time high in May 2025. At the S&P’s high the price of a Berkshire share had fallen by 10.7%. The Berkshire share price has continued to steadily decline.
The two above charts pose the possibility that an extreme Berkshire versus S&P 500 diversion is an accurate recession predictor. The logic for how possible is simple. The indicator can be reliable and accurate because the price of Berkshire share is perhaps the ideal proxy for the U.S. economy and stock market. Berkshire has:
- 60 businesses that are independent of each other and the majority are consumer oriented. The businesses are labor dependent and for the most part can-not become more efficient because of technology. Operating businesses include insurance, transportation, retail, manufacturing, and energy. GEICO and Dairy Queen are good examples. An insurance claims adjuster or a Dairy Queen server will never be replaced by AI.
- 392,000 employees who live and work throughout the United States.
- Three million shareholders
The three above combined metrics uniquely position Berkshire to be a leading and perhaps the best predictor for volatile stock market declines and recessions. It has the critical mass of employees and shareholders that would be required to have an impact on share price. The employees provide the critical feedback loop which keeps shareholders and investors in the communities regularly informed about the status of Berkshire’s businesses. For example, when a Berkshire company lays off, especially a long term employee, its generally because the activities or traffic for the business has slowed. Thus, the news of a slow-down caused lay off seeps into the community in which the layoff occurred. Those individual and professionals who hold shares take notice. Other chatter about changes for customer traffic, etc., is also disseminated by employees into the communities in which the Berkshire employees reside. Please note that Berkshire is among the few S&P 500 member companies which does not hold quarterly earnings calls. Berkshire also does not give guidance.
Berkshire’s natural boots on the ground investor communications system resulted in its share price being very accurate for predicting the 2008 significant decline for the S&P 500 and other major indices.
Berkshire’s employee counts are published and monitored. The chart below depicts total employees and the annual changes for Berkshire’s employee counts from 2010 to 2024. At the end of 2024, Berkshire had less employees as compared to 2023.
Since recessions by their very nature can only discovered with hindsight its quite possible that a recession in the U.S. has already begun.
My finding the extreme divergence between the S&P 500 and Berkshire support my thesis for a secular bear market beginning in 2025 for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices. Based on my findings for prior secular bears the major indices are projected to steadily decline for the next nine to 20 years. The table below contains the secular markets performance statistics for the Dow Jones since 1920. See also “Secular Bear Underway, How 80%+ Decline for Dow & S&P Possible?”
Every investor should deploy a defensive growth strategy because a buy and hold strategy does not work during a secular bear market. The video below “Exit Blue Chips during Secular Bears” is highly recommended.
Exit Blue Chips During Secular Bears
The table below contains my recommended $1.0 million defensive growth strategy. 70% or $700,000 of a $1,000,000 portfolio is allocated to US Treasury bonds. Under the strategy that is presently available (see table below) $1.0 million is projected to increase to $68 million by 2034. The U.S. government bonds mitigate the risk since for the $250,000 that is allocated to venture capital. The aggregate value of the bonds is projected at $1,060,000 in 2034. Thus, the strategy provides a no risk opportunity to multiply the total amount invested in the strategy by 68 times.
The key for growth during a secular bear is to invest 25% into venture capital. New solutions to existing problems can enable a startup or later stage private company to easily grow and increase in value during an extended weak economy and/or stock market. Federal Express is a great example. The first ever next day letter and package delivery service provider was founded in 1971 and amidst the 1966 to 1982 secular bear market. The chart below depicts that Fedex’s share price from its 1978 IPO to 1982 secular bear market bottom increased by 224%. The Dow Jones Industrials index increased by 9.94% for the same period.
The valuation of the $250,000 allocated to the Liquid Hyper Growth Strategy (LHGS) fund increasing to $67 million by 2034 is quite possible. The fund exclusively holds shares in Dynasty Wealth sponsored private companies. For a company to be sponsored by Dynasty Wealth it must have the potential to reach a minimum valuation of $100 billion by 2035. The table below contains the four Dynasty Wealth companies that are held by the fund. My “Digital Fund, 2nd chance for $500K to Billions” report is a must read. The report provides the rationale for how such gains are possible and explains the liquid hyper growth strategy (LHGS).
The company in the above table with the most upside throughout my 48 year career is RYPPLZZ and it is the fund’s lead company. The RYPPLZZ shares held by the fund were acquired at a cost basis which is less than a $40 million company valuation. My projection is for RYPPLZZ to reach a valuation of $1.0 billion by end of 2025 and $10 billion by end of 2026. There is the potential for every mobile phone user in the US to have a surcharge added to their monthly phone bill with the beneficiary being RYPPLZZ. The probability is high for RYPPLZZ’ revenue to increase to $300 million per month by the middle of 2026. See “Headlines Support RYPPLZZ 40 Times Increase Prediction”. Eventually the surcharge will be added to the bill for every cell phone user in the world.
For information about the LHGS fund or to participate in a ZOOM questions and answers session or to schedule an appointment with me click and fill out form below.
View video below which covers my visionary analyst methodology. I entered the capital markets with Merrill Lynch in 1977. Since then I have researched the extreme events and then utilized my findings to develop algorithms to predict the next event. My research of Enron’s financials after its infamous 2001 bankruptcy is a great example. The findings enabled the development of an algorithm that was utilized to predict the 2008 collapse of the five brokers including Lehman Brothers. See September 2007 Equities Magazine article which contained my prediction. My research of the companies in the table below on the left enabled the companies in the table on the right to be identified.
About Markowski’s Algos & Track Record
Michael Markowski, Director of Research for DynastyWealth.com and SaveChangeWorld.com. Developer of “Defensive Growth Strategy”. Entered markets with Merrill Lynch in 1977. Named “Top 50 Investor” by Fortune Magazine. Formerly, underwriter of venture stage IPOs, including one acquired by United Health Care for 1700% gain. Since 2002 has conducted empirical research to develop algorithms which predict the negative and positive extremes for the market and stocks. Has verifiable track records for predicting (1) bankruptcies of blue chips, (2) market crashes and (3) stocks multiplying by 10X. In a 2007 Equities Magazine article predicted the epic collapses for Lehman, Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. Most recent algorithm developed from research of UBER and AirBnB has enabled identification of startups having 100X upside potential within 7 to 10 years. Video (3 minutes, 53 seconds) covers Mr. Markowski’s research to develop predictive algorithm methodology.
