The bank slashed its Brent crude forecast by $10 per barrel as Iran tensions ease and non-OPEC supply surges
Goldman Sachs has cut its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel, down from $90, as the bank anticipates a flood of supply returning to a market that spent the first half of the year pricing in wartime scarcity.
The catalyst is straightforward: a new US-Iran interim agreement aimed at normalizing relations, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a growing wave of non-OPEC production that shows no signs of slowing down.
The numbers behind the downgrade
Goldman’s revised outlook doesn’t stop at Q4 2026. The bank’s 2027 average forecast has also been pulled down to $80 per barrel, with some internal analyses suggesting prices could dip as low as $75.
The Strait of Hormuz normally handles about 20% of global oil supply. Now Goldman expects those flows to recover, though the bank sees throughput reaching only about 70% of pre-war levels. Alternative transport routes developed during the disruption can now handle roughly 7.5 million barrels per day, effectively reducing the world’s dependence on a single maritime bottleneck.
Persian Gulf exports are expected to normalize to pre-war levels by late July 2026, about a month earlier than previous estimates. Full production recovery is projected by October 2026.
A wall of non-OPEC supply
Non-OPEC production growth is coming from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the UAE. When combined with diminishing demand from China, the supply picture shifts substantially toward oversupply.
Fitch Ratings forecasts the global oil market will return to o