- Uncertain how Republicans may react to possible second defeat
- Chinese premier warned of negative consequences of decoupling
America’s deep partisan divide threatens to inject uncertainty into markets even if Joe Biden wins a second term, according to economic historian Adam Tooze. That’s because Republicans may lash out more should he defeat Donald Trump again.
“The more dangerous scenario from a political point of view is that Biden wins,” said Tooze, a Columbia University professor who spoke Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Dalian, China.
The uncertainty from a Biden win comes from how a Trump-led Republican party might react to a second defeat for the former president, said Tooze, author of Crashed, a history of the 2008 financial crisis. Markets may see it as a less stable outcome, he added.
Biden and Trump are scheduled to hold their first debate of the 2024 US presidential general election cycle on Thursday. Their bitter 2020 contest in which Trump contested the loss and his supporters rioted at the US Capitol continues to reverberate.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll in May showed Trump pulling ahead of Biden by 4 percentage points across seven key swing states amid pessimism over the economy.
Biden’s campaign said Tooze’s warning underscored the stakes of the presidential election.
“Experts and economists from across the political spectrum agree that Donald Trump’s agenda will raise prices on the middle class, send inflation soaring, and send us into a recession,” said Biden spokesperson James Singer.
The election’s outcome could have a big impact on China and the US economy. During t