There are two mistakes you can make with predictions: claiming that something will happen when it won’t, or that it won’t happen when it will. The economist Paul Samuelson joked in 1966 that the stock markets predicted nine of the last five recessions. What, then, should we make about forecasts that the AI boom will burst, and that the world as we know it will end?
Rather than predictions, let’s focus on what we know. The coming of AI is the biggest structural shift happening to the global economy right now. If the massive AI investments currently under way in the US succeed, the payoff for