The stock market hogs all the headlines, but better gauges can be found in the bond and currency markets.
Trump’s Market Honeymoon Won’t Last Much Longer — Robert Burgess
The clock is ticking for Donald Trump and his surrogates to provide answers to some critical questions around economic policy.
Just look at the government bond market, which is the benchmark for the global financial system, and the dollar, by far the world’s primary reserve currency. These markets signal that the warnings of faster inflation from economists who have analyzed the policies of a proposed Trump administration are all too real. And that means interest rates will be higher for longer, and tighter financial conditions will restrain the economy.
A reckoning may be in store for equity investors if Trump or his surrogates don’t soon provide the specifics of his plan to carry out a potentially costly trade war and the mass deportation of millions from the labor force without triggering inflation. What investors have heard so far is vague and contradictory. For example, Trump wants to boost the economy with tariffs, but doing so is widely expected to reignite inflation. He also wants to deport millions of immigrants, but that also threatens to reignite inflation. “Soon enough, the stock market will have to look past the promise of tax cuts and deregulation to assess just how disruptive Team Trump will be in their second term,” Christopher Smart, managing partner of Arbroath Group and a former Treasury Department official in the Obama administration, wrote in a Nov. 11 Substack missive.
Read the whole thing.
Trump’s Biggest China Problem Won’t Be Trade — Minxin Pei
The 1928 Rally Was Just Like This One — John Authers
Musk’s Efficiency Department Is Highly Inefficient — Kathryn Edwards
Germany’s Harsh Reckoning Is Also an Opportunity — Bloomberg’s editorial board
Trump Doesn’t Have to Be Bad News for Ukraine — Marc Champion
Trump’s ‘New Order’ Will Be Global Anarchy — Andreas Kluth
The Bitcoin Bubble Isn’t All About Trump — Allison Schrager
China’s Cops Are Coming to a City Near You — Karishma Vaswani
Musk’s AI Nightmares Could Blunt Trump’s Tech Ambitions — Parmy Olson
Europe’s Struggle With MAGA Is Unlikely to End Well — Max Hastings
More From Bloomberg Opinion
- CEOs think their silence will save them from Trump 2.0. They’re wrong, Beth Kowitt says.
- Pete Hegseth is Trump’s pick to lead the US military. Andreas Kluth warns that choosing a Fox News host with no foreign-policy experience when the world is at risk of a major war is … not great.
- X Broadcast: How should we interpret the choppy inflation data ahead of Trump’s second presidency? Jonathan Levin, Kathryn Rooney Vera and Kayla Bruun discuss.
Written by: Brooke Sample @Bloomberg
The post “Economy Watchers Should Be Seeing Red Flags” first appeared on Bloomberg