Now is the time for all Family Offices to come of age. Upon doing so, they will rightfully claim their seats at the U.S. Capital Markets round table, alongside the four additional generational investor groups:
Generational investors, the world’s oldest, largest and most disciplined, comprise the backbone of the U.S. capital markets and asset classes. Generational-investor pioneers laid the foundation for the capital markets because they accounted for the majority of investment capital and trading volume from 1882 to 1920. The investment disciplines they had to develop and hone to be able to survive extreme volatilities within the Consumer Price Index, economy and S&P 500 in the late 19th and early 20th centuries evolved to become the key valuation benchmarks for the S&P 500 and all stocks, i.e.:
For more about generational investors and the evolution of their disciplines, please see “S&P 500’s Bottoms Occur Only When Generational Investors Buy!”, Michael Markowski, June 4, 2022, AlphaTack.com.
The table below depicts assets for five groups, that in aggregate had assets of $69.1 trillion on 12/31/2021. Assets of the five were equivalent to 129% of the aggregate value of the entire U.S. stock market at 12/31/2021.
The Family Office group, which consists of 7,300 Family Offices, has the second-largest portion, equivalent to 8.5% of the $69.1 trillion of all assets held by generational investors. A high percentage of the assets held by Family Offices have been amassed in the 21st Century. According to Forbes, from 2008 to 2019, the number of Family Offices within the U.S. grew by 10 times. The average assets held by a Family Office in 2019 were $765 million.
However, the average Family Office has is distinctly disadvantaged when compared to a Swiss bank, endowment, public pension fund, or a sovereign wealth fund for three reasons:
AlphaTack.com, for which I serve as Director of Strategies, was founded to fill these inherent disadvantage voids prevalent among most Family Offices and independent Registered Investment Advisors. “Growing Assets against the Wind” is the AlphaTack.com slogan. AlphaTack provides:
Time is of the essence for Family Offices to deploy defensive strategies. The troubling findings from my research on inflation from 1871 to 2022; relative to how it affected the S&P 500’s real dividend yields, should startle every Family Office. Based upon this empirical data the forecast follows:
Inflation is the nemesis that will cause both of the above events, which have the potential of being devastating. A decline of such magnitude for the S&P 500 would be the recipe for the U.S. to enter into its Third Great Depression. The chart below depicts the last time the S&P 500 declined by at least 79.95%, while from 1929 to 1932 the S&P 500 declined by 85%. The decline was the primary cause for the Second Great Depression of 1929 to 1938 being much longer than the First U.S. Great Depression of 1920 to 1921.
Finally, based upon my research of secular markets, the S&P 500 and the U.S. economy face another risk. The secular bull market that began in 2009, ended when a new secular bear market began on January 4, 2022. This bear will be the cause of a 47% to 85% decline for the S&P 500. The decline ranges are based on S&P 500’s peak to trough declines for all of its secular bear markets since 1929, as depicted in the table below.
To prepare for extreme U.S. stock market volatility, which is inevitable, do the following:
Cash should be invested in any or all of the following:
*View the 90/10 Crash Protection video at bottom of the page to understand why
**Available through AlphaTack‘s strategies via referral to advisors and funds.
The chart below depicts the performance of AlphaTack’s Bull & Bear Tracker, which gained 224% vs. 51% for the S&P 500 from March 2018 to May 2022. The Bull & Bear Tracker is an ideal secular bear market investment vehicle since it fully leverages extreme volatility. The three yellow shaded areas on the chart depict the algorithm’s gains vs. the S&P 500’s declines for the 2018, 2020, and 2022 volatile periods. For more information about BBT go to AlphaTack.com.
| Video No. | Secular Bear Market Educational Videos | Run Time |
| N/A | What is the difference between a secular bear and a cyclical bear? | 4:35 |
| N/A | Why the minimum duration for a secular bear is 8 years | 1:15 |
| N/A | Secular bull investing strategies do not work during a secular bear market | 2:12 |
| N/A | Why the worst performing stocks during a secular bear were always the best performers of prior secular bull | 1:36 |
| N/A | Proven Secular Bear investing strategies | 10:28 |
| N/A | AlphaTack, Secular Bear Investments Lifeboat | 2:03 |
| N/A | About Analyst | 4:07 |
Michael Markowski, a 47-year financial markets veteran, is the Director of Strategies for AlphaTack, whose slogan is “growing assets against the wind”. He conducts empirical research of the past, which he then utilizes to develop algorithms to predict the future. His research of Enron’s Financial Statements after its infamous bankruptcy led to the development of a Cash Flow Statement algorithm. The algorithm was utilized to predict a “day of reckoning” for Lehman, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs in a September 2007, Equities Magazine article. Michael’s research of prior market crashes led to the development of the Bull & Bear Tracker (BBT) algorithm. From 2018 to 2022, the BBT gained 177% vs. the S&P 500’s 50%. His predictions of all periods of heightened market volatility from 2008 to 2022 and that S&P 500 at March 23, 2020 had reached its bottom which was exact are media verifiable.
