Calvasina added that the speed of the market’s ascent left investors she and her team met with in a relative “state of disbelief,” with many thinking that “stocks were simply pricing in too much optimism, with potential ripple effects from the Middle East and energy market disruption still clouding the outlook in terms of potential cost pressures on businesses and consumers and demand/sentiment impacts.”

Notably, private credit worries, AI bubble fears, and concerns about a policy mistake from the Fed did not feature in these discussions, RBC added.

For some commentators, this rally is a source of frustration or, more pointedly, a sign that investors are flat-out wrong about how much to discount a series of global risks.

For others, the market’s rise hinges on a one-time quirk that flatters the underlying profitability of corporate America.

Whether the primary source of the market’s early spring bout of optimism is easing tensions in the Middle East, a renewed faith in the AI trade, or a misguided belief in what this earnings season will say about US corporate profits is a fun discussion, but it doesn’t offer anything durable for an investor to take past this distinct moment in market history.

Rather, the last six weeks of market behavior have reminded us that the market’s collective wisdom really just asks one question, every day: Are things getting better or worse?

What changes, at nearly the same cadence, are the things we’re talking about: wars, profits, technological innovations, animal spirits, recessions, booms, pandemics, and the like.

Financial markets remain a source of fascination because of the investor class’s collective willingness to offer judgments on all manner of events, albeit in sometimes crude and inelegant ways.

And the additional benefit of markets is that if you disagree with these conclusions, there are plenty of ways to express that view.

None of which requires you to put it in writing.