Michael Markowski, the developer of algorithms that have forecasted the S&P 500’s significant crashes for over a decade, has updated his forecast for the S&P 500’s bottom for the month of July 2022 to 880.75. The new bottom is Markowski’s lowest monthly forecast since the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted (real) dividend yield (Div/Y) went from positive to negative in February of 2021. At this bottom the S&P will have declined by 81.72% from its January 4, 2020 all-time high of 4818.62. (For Markowski’s media-verifiable crash predictions, please see the table at the bottom of this page.)
The table below contains all of Mr. Markowski’s S&P 500 forecasts for the first six months of 2022. The July 2022 decline forecast, calculated from the June 2022 inflation rate of 9.1% and the S&P 500’s real Div/Y of −7.38%, is the highest since the index’s Div/Y went from positive to negative in February 2021. The table below depicts all of Mr. Markowski’s S&P 500 target- and percentage-decline forecasts for the first six months of 2022. The forecasted declines range from 78.10% to 81.72%. Mr. Markowski will continue to adjust his forecasts monthly until the S&P 500’s Div/Y becomes positive. Click here to Receive FREE S&P 500 Monthly Target Updates.
The S&P 500 bottoms and percentage declines are calculated from the S&P 500’s monthly DivY. The DivY is computed by subtracting the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index, i.e., the inflation rate, from the S&P 500’s nominal yield. The table below depicts how the Div/Y was computed for the first six months of 2022.
Mr. Markowski is known for his precision forecasts. Markowski’s March 6, 2020 report, “U.S. Stock Market to Decline by Another 22% by Easter”, provided the hard data and rationale for the U.S. and other major foreign stock indices (cited in the table below) to decline by a minimum of 34% from their February 2020 record highs. The article cited that as of February 28, 2020 the indices had already declined by 10.8% to 13.8%. Well before Easter Sunday, April 12, 2020, the indices had declined by 32.1% to 39.9% from their pre Pandemic 2020 record highs.
Mr. Markowski is also forecasting the S&P 500 to bottom and the U.S. to enter into its Third Great Depression in 2023. His June 2022 articles and videos below support his forecasts and are highly recommended:
1. “Inflation to Shoulder Blame for 79.95% S&P 500 Decline”, Michael Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel. This article reveals key points, as follows:
- High correlation between the S&P 500’s real (inflation adjusted) dividend yield status (positive or negative) and performance of the index over a century and a half (from 1871 to 2020)
- When the dividend yield was negative the S&P 500 underperformed and was crash-prone
- When the dividend yield was positive the S&P 500 had its best performances
PLEASE NOTE: View the highly recommended 16:38 minute video below, “Research Findings Supporting 79.95% S&P 500 Decline” Markowski (June 6, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
2. “S&P 500’s Bottoms Occur Only When Generational Investors Buy!”, Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel. This article reveals:
- Why generational investors ― the world’s oldest and largest, including family offices, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, etc. ― are highly disciplined to not buy stocks until the S&P 500 Div/Y goes from negative to positive. (View related article entitled, “All Family Offices Need to ‘Come of Age’”, Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.)
PLEASE NOTE: Below view the 5:10 minute clip from the above referenced video, “Because of Generational Investors, Div/Y Indicator Reliable for Identifying S&P 500 Bottoms for Three Centuries”, Markowski (June 6, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
3. “Federal Reserve’s Repeat of 1920−1931 Policy Mistakes Set Stage for Next U.S. Great Depression”, Markowski (June 4, 2022), AlphaTack.com.
- Fed’s 2020 policy mistake was similar to its 1920 policy mistake, which led to first U.S. Great Depression and 32% S&P 500 decline
- Fed’s 2021 policy mistake is similar to that of 1928−-1929 policy mistake, which led to 85% S&P 500 decline and second U.S. Great Depression
- S&P 500 decline will mimic Second Great Depression decline of 85% instead of First Great Depression decline of 32%. See related 2:58 video clip below, “S&P 500’s 79.95% Decline to Mimic 2nd Great Depression Decline of 85%, Instead of 1st Great Depression’s 32%”, Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
PLEASE NOTE: Please also view related 12:47 minute video clip (Part 2 of 2), entitled, “Research Findings Supporting Third U.S. Great Depression to Begin”, Documented with Part 1 of 2, “Inflation’s Chaos to Cause 79.95% S&P 500 Decline and 3rd U.S. Great Depression”, Part 2 of 2, “Research Findings Supporting Third U.S. Great Depression to Begin” Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
PLEASE NOTE: Below, view a 2:58 minute clip from the above referenced video entitled, “S&P 500’s 79.95% Decline to Mimic 2nd Great Depression Decline of 85%, Instead of 1st Great Depression’s 32%”, Markowski (April 3, 2022), AlphaTack.com, AlphaTack Intel.
Markowski’s forecasted 81.72% decline for the S&P 500 from its all-time high coincides with the timing of his March 20, 2022 prediction. This prediction that the first secular bear market since 2000 (dot-com peak) had begun at the S&P 500’s January 4, 2022, all-time high was based on his research of all secular bull and bear markets since 1871. The table below contains Mr. Markowski’s findings from his research of secular markets and the last three secular bears, which began in 1929, 1973 and 2000. The table depicts that for the three prior secular bears, the S&P 500 declined by 47% to 85%. Markowski’s secular bear research findings further support his 81.72% decline forecast.
The 4 min 31 sec video below, entitled “What is the difference between a secular bear and a cyclical bear?” is highly recommended. The video explains that the stock market has been secular and has rotated from secular bulls to secular bears, and vice versa, repeatedly since the late 19th century.
The table below contains all of Markowski’s media-verifiable market-decline predictions from 2008 to 2022.